The eight shortlisted weeks compared across wildfire risk, weather, bird nesting, community availability and Board opinion. Data from 2025 unless noted. Green is favourable, amber is caution, red is unfavourable.
| Candidate week | Wildfire riskaffects: cancellation | Temperaturelow / daily high | Rainwet-day chance | Bird nestingrefusal probability | Availability% who can come | Boardvoting yes, of 7 | Other burns / eventsoverlap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May – 6 Junearly summer | Low | 16 °C | 28 °C | 21% | Moderate: ~25–45% | 59% | 3 / 7 | Burning Nest ends; Somewhere uncertain |
| 7 – 13 Junearly summer | Low | 17 °C | 30 °C | 24% | Moderate: ~15–35% | 63% | 5 / 7 | Art Bär |
| 14 – 20 Junearly summer | Med | 18 °C | 31 °C | 18% | Low–moderate: ~10–25% | 52% | 0 / 7 | Art Bär, Aarhus, Where the Sheep Sleep, Bivrost, Degošie Jāņi |
| 5 – 11 Julestablished window | Very high | 20 °C | 34 °C | 10% | Low: ~5–20% | 44% | 0 / 7 | None mapped |
| 6 – 12 Seplate summer | Low–Med | 18 °C | 30 °C | 14% | Very low | 51% | 3 / 7 | Arctic; Microburn / Pyraegea start around this period; Burning Man |
| 13 – 19 Seplate summer | Low | 17 °C | 28 °C | 23% | Very low | 59% | 6 / 7 | Microburn + Pyraegea |
| 20 – 26 Seplate summer | Low | 16 °C | 26 °C | 20% | Very low | 55% | 6 / 7 | Pyraegea to ~22 Sep |
| 27 Sep – 3 Octautumn | Very low | 15 °C | 26 °C | 14% | Very low | 52% | 5 / 7 | None mapped |
Wildfire risk — historical wildfire alert exposure for equivalent weeks. Potential impact: cancellation of the event.
Temperature — typical low / median daily high. Potential impact: ticket sales.
Rain — wet-day chance. Potential impact: ticket sales.
Bird nesting — estimated probability of refusal specifically on bird-nesting grounds. Potential impact: cancellation of the event.
Community availability — % of survey respondents who selected availability on this date.
Board opinion — Board members voting yes, out of 7.
Data from 2025.